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07/20/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Home runs are not easy to hit, but the St. Louis Cardinals made it their job in last night's win over the Philadelphia Phillies. The NL Central-leading Cardinals will try to go deep again Tuesday in the second installment of this four-game series at Busch Stadium.
The Cardinals were down by two in the fifth inning of Monday's game before Albert Pujols cracked a two-run homer followed by solo shots from Allen Craig and Skip Schumaker one out later to take the lead for good. Randy Winn then led off the sixth inning with a home run for the Cardinals, who went on to post an 8-4 victory, their sixth in a row.
Pujols collected two hits and three runs batted in, while Jon Jay went 2-for-3 with an RBI in a winning effort. Blake Hawksworth managed to pick up the win even though he gave up four runs and 10 hits over six innings of work.
"I got us in a hole early, but they picked me up and got the 'W'," Hawksworth said.
St. Louis was coming off a four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers and is 5-0 on an eight-game homestand. It also sits a half-game ahead of Cincinnati in the NL Central standings.
The Cardinals have a good shot at staying on top in the division with Chris Carpenter slated to take the mound Tuesday night. Carpenter ended a three- start winless streak (0-2) the last time out on Thursday in a 7-1 win over the visiting Dodgers, as he tossed eight innings of one-run ball with six K's.
Carpenter pushed his mark to 10-3 in 20 starts to go along with a 3.16 earned run average. The right-hander and 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner is 7-2 in 11 home starts this season and will make his ninth career start against the Phillies. Carpenter is 4-2 with a less desirable 5.73 ERA in his first eight appearances against Philadelphia.
The Cardinals are 37-21 in games started by Adam Wainwright, Carpenter and Jaime Garcia this season.
Philadelphia's start of the second half hasn't gone as planned, having dropped two straight and four of five games since the All-Star break. The Phillies, who entered the midway point of the season with a four-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds, got a rough outing from starter Kyle Kendrick last night.
Kendrick was 4-0 in his career against St. Louis before surrendering seven runs on seven hits and three walks in five innings of work. Chad Durbin gave up the only run in relief for the Phillies, who are now six games off the lead in the National League East Division.
"My command was off all night. I was falling behind hitters," Kendrick said.
Shane Victorino had two RBI and Ryan Howard chipped in a pair of hits and knocked in a run in defeat. Jimmy Rollins had an RBI as well for the Phillies, who recently lost three of four games in Chicago and are 18-12 against NL Central foes in 2010.
Jamie Moyer has fared well in his career against St. Louis, going 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 12 games (11 starts), and will take the mound Tuesday. Moyer has lost three straight starts since a personal three-game winning streak and lasted just three innings in Thursday's 12-6 road setback against the Cubs.
Moyer allowed six runs and five hits to fall to 9-9 in 18 starts to go along with a 4.88 earned run average. The veteran lefty is 4-6 in 10 road starts this season.
The Phillies had a four-game winning streak in the Gateway City come to an end last night. They still lead the 2010 season series by a 3-2 count.
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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