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06/05/2010 - Fort Worth, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Todd Bodine put on a dominating performance, but had to hold off Ron Hornaday Jr. and Johnny Sauter in a green-white- checkered finish to win Friday's WinStar World Casino 400k Camping World Truck Series race at Texas Motor Speedway.
Bodine led 97 of 167 laps for his record-extending sixth victory at Texas. He beat Ron Hornaday Jr. out of the pits and took the lead for good with 39 laps remaining.
A late-race caution for an accident involving Matt Crafton and David Starr set up the final two-lap overtime finish. Hornaday was running second when the race resumed, but he got shoved up the track just after the restart, which allowed Johnny Sauter to take the second spot.
Bodine finished one second ahead of Sauter to end his 24-race winless streak in the series. His last victory came one year ago at Texas.
"I'm usually not that good on restarts, so I knew, especially with Ron on the outside of me, I had to get a good one, and that last one, I did get a good one, and I didn't spin the tires, except right before third gear," Bodine said.
Bodine claimed his 11th victory on 1.5-mile (intermediate) tracks and his 18th overall in the series.
Bodine also extended his points lead to 65 over Aric Almirola, who finished two laps behind in 12th. Almirola pitted under green on lap 60, but had a tire get away from his stall. NASCAR slapped him with a pass-through penalty.
Sauter finished second, while rookie Austin Dillon, the pole sitter, had a career-best run of third. Mike Skinner and Ken Schrader rounded out the top- five.
"We weren't the greatest truck tonight," Sauter said. "In the long run, we were pretty fast."
James Buescher took the sixth spot, followed by Timothy Peters and former Formula One driver Nelson Piquet Jr. Hornaday wound up ninth, and Johnny Benson, driving Kyle Busch's No.18 truck, came in 10th. Busch did not compete at Texas due to his Sprint Cup Series commitments this weekend at Pocono.
<< Rangers fend off Rays thanks to seven-run fourth
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vladimir Guerrero's three-run double capped a
seven-run fourth inning rally that carried Texas to a 9-6 comeback win over
Tampa Bay in the opener of a three-game set at Rangers Ballpark.
Josh Hamilton and
<< Masterson, Peralta help Indians rout White Sox
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jhonny Peralta had four hits and drove in four
runs, as Justin Masterson snapped his 17-start winless streak in the Indians'
10-1 win over the Chicago White Sox.
Peralta doubled twice and scored twice in the
<< Flyers even series with Game 4 victory
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Leighton turned in a 32-save
performance and a three-goal first period helped Philadelphia survive a late
Chicago rush to take a 5-3 win in Game 4 and even the Stanley Cup Finals.
Chicago
<< Berkman, Paulino pace Astros over Cubs
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lance Berkman paced the offense with three hits
and two runs batted in, while Felipe Paulino tossed eight solid innings, as
the Houston Astros took down the Chicago Cubs, 3-1, in the opener of a three-
game se
Saunders, Angels take care of Mariners >>
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joe Saunders allowed one run in six solid
innings, and the Los Angeles Angels opened a three-game set with the Seattle
Mariners with a dominating 7-1 win at Safeco Field.
Saunders (4-6) scattered eigh
Loney, Dodgers halt Braves' nine-game hit streak >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - James Loney's run-scoring single broke a
tie game in the seventh and sent the Dodgers to a 5-4 win, snapping the
Braves' nine-game winning streak in the process.
Clayton Kershaw went 6 2/3 innings
Loney, Dodgers halt Braves' nine-game win streak >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - James Loney's run-scoring single broke a
tie game in the seventh and sent the Dodgers to a 5-4 win, snapping the
Braves' nine-game winning streak in the process.
Clayton Kershaw went 6 2/3 innings
Young send Twins past A's in 11 >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Delmon Young drove in the game-winning run in
the 11th inning as the Minnesota Twins downed the Oakland Athletics, 5-4,
in the opener of a three-game set.
Justin Morneau went 2-for-4 with a two-run ho
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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